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Backwards Risk
Risk entry is the overflow date minus the service life on the contract.
risk_entry = 2038-01-19 − service_life
Service life is the equipment lifetime, certificate validity, retention period, or support term already on the paperwork. A 10-year unit installed after 19 January 2028 includes the overflow in its service life.
Worked Unix example
Deadline: 19 January 2038. Horizon: 10 years of industrial service life.
Risk-entry date: 19 January 2028. Any 10-year box installed after that date is sold into a life that includes the overflow, whether or not the firmware has a 64-bit clock.
| Horizon | Unix Y2038 risk-entry |
|---|---|
| 30 years | 2008-01-19 |
| 25 years | 2013-01-19 |
| 20 years | 2018-01-19 |
| 15 years | 2023-01-19 |
| 12 years | 2026-01-19 |
| 10 years | 2028-01-19 |
| 7 years | 2031-01-19 |
| 5 years | 2033-01-19 |
| 3 years | 2035-01-19 |